Lunch Seminar: Forecasting Climate Change Scenarios in Myanmar Using MRI-AGCM3.2S

  • 27 Nov 2019
  • 12:30 - 13:30
  • Westvest 7, Delft | Socio room
Western Europe
Delft, The Netherlands

Summary of Research

In the present study, MRI-AGCM3.2S was used to simulate both the present-day climate (1981-2005) and projected climate for near future (2020-2044) and far future (2075-99) under the IPCC A1B scenario. MRI-AGCM3.2S is developed by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). In this research, 84 stations are considered to calculate the rainfall percentage departure of Myanmar. Forty-three stations are considered to calculate the temperature change of Myanmar. The bias-correction was performed using two different techniques: linear scaling and lumped quantile mapping. Bias correction is capable of improving the GCM-simulated outputs to a certain degree. When only few stations are located within the region, these data sets do not capture the realistic distribution in this large area. In that case, it is difficult to obtain actual distribution from very limited number of observation. It is seen observed that lumped quantile mapping method is better than linear scaling method. Performance of bias correction was quantified by coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). It was seen that maximum temperature will increase 0.2 °C to 1.6 °C and 0.7 °C to 3.6 °C during (2020-2044 ) and ( 2075-2099), respectively. In some regions of Myanmar, rainfall is expected to increase in 2030s, and in most regions, rainfall is expected to increase in 2080s. Projections of future climates are the basis for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction planning.

About the speaker

Prof. Dr. Win Win Zin, from the Department of Civil Engineering of The Yangon Technological University, will be presenting her most recent research findings. She graduated as Civil Engineer at Yangon Technological University, Myanmar in 1987. She received her Master degree from Karlsruhe University, Germany in 2000. She received her PhD degree (Sandwich) from Karlsurhe University and Yangon Technological University in 2009.  She is serving as a Professor at the Department of Civil Engineering, Yangon Technological University. She is enthusiastic in research and is conducting as a project leader with international collaboration. She has projects with Delft University of Technology, IHE Delft,University of Bonn, Kiel University and  University of Tokyo. Currently she is conducting research on flood inundation mapping and climate change. Apart from her academic duties, she is positioned as member of Executive Committee, Myanmar National Committee on Large Dams (MNCOLD) as well.

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